Friday, 6 May 2016

'Aint' nothing going on but the rent': London Mayor & London Assembly elections 2016

So we are all waiting for the results. Following fairly uninspiring, though at times controversial campaigns ("It's ugly and dangerous': the inside story of the battle to be London mayor."), we are told to expect during this evening the results of the Mayor of London & London Assembly elections.

Sadiq Khan (Labour) and Zac Goldsmiths (Conservative) have slugged it out for the Mayoral position, to succeed Boris Johnson, while numerous others have competed for the 25 London Assembly places. While we've been bombarded with how #KhanCan and why we should #BackZac, and on the face of it there are so many important issues facing one of the most important cities in the world, others have questioned just how much power the Mayor actually has ("Message To The Next Mayor: Show Us Why We Should Care").

But don't hold your breath on the results. Four years ago, just after the 2012 London elections, I wrote at the time:
"Despite a result promised early in the evening, especially given the low turnout, we were kept on tenterhooks until almost midnight. During this time, the result kept being expected 'in about half an hour' but was constantly pushed back, with tales of 'lost and found' ballot boxes and the electronic counting machine failing...."
Despite a low turnout predicted again this time, I wonder when the results will be in, perhaps especially given one or two electoral irregularities ("Angry London voters including Britain’s Chief Rabbi were turned away from polling stations today after a huge blunder hit thousands in the mayoral election."). This is a terrible happening in any circumstances, but given the current sensitivities around antisemitism, it's not good news...of all the constituencies, of all the voters, comes to mind...

Although polls predict a Khan win, many are wary of counting their chickens given the epic fail of the general election polling a year ago. And there are predictions of a low turn out, not thought to be good for Khan. So it could be close. Just like the 2012 Mayoral election in fact when Boris won by a narrow margin of only 3%.

So, for now as we wait, for posterity...

These are the 2016 Mayor of London candidates:

with the results for the 2012 Mayoral election:

and the 2012 Greenwich & Lewisham breakdown of these mayoral votes:

The 2016 Constituency London member candidates for Greenwich & Lewisham:

with the 2012 results for Constituency London member candidates for Greenwich & Lewisham:

 and the 2012 results for how Greenwich & Lewisham voted for their London-Wide AM:

It will be fascinating to compare these to the 2016 results...whenever we get them. It will also, more importantly, be fascinating to see what the new Mayor does with the four years ahead of him.